2019 Manchester Merges: Accurate Predictor

This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!! Fresh off last night’s Rankings Reveal, here is our annual Manchester Merges Post. One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state. Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons. But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor? With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state. Is this the right decision? Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study. We have provided links to the 2019 merges provided by Millennium Running. We have also provided comparisons of how the merge fared in 2018 and links to our posts from previous years. Warning: Long Post!!!

2019 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL STATE AND DIVISIONAL MERGES

Manch State Merge Girls

Manch State Merge Boys

Manch D1 Merge Girls

Manch D1 Merge Boys

Manch D2 Merge Girls

Manch D2 Merge Boys

Manch D3 Merge Girls

Manch D3 Merge Boys

HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2017 WITH MOCS

2018 MI GIRLS MERGE 2018 MOC FINISH

Rank	School	Score	Rank	School	Score
1	Coe-Brown	207	1	Exeter	118
2	Exeter	209	2	Coe-Brown	121
3	Salem	211	3	Con-Val	155
4	Souhegan	213	4	Pinkerton	167
5	Oyster River	228	5	Oyster River	179
6	Bedford	231	6	Souhegan	194
7	Bishop Guertin	237	7	Bishop Guertin	201
8	Con-Val	244	8	Salem	205
9	Central	325	9	Bedford	222
10	Concord	345	10	Hanover	241
11	Pinkerton	378	11	Concord	242
12	Campbell	394	12	Central	245
13	South	422	13	Hopkinton	264
14	Hanover	433	14	Milford	298
15	Hopkinton	437	15	Campbell	299

2018 MI BOYS MERGE 2018 MOC FINISH

Rank	School	Score	Rank	School	Score
1	Concord	45	1	Concord	83
2	Coe-Brown	132	2	Oyster River	124
3	Winnacunnet	166	3	Coe-Brown	126
4	Londonderry	180	4	Keene	128
5	Oyster River	191	5	Pinkerton	156
6	Pinkerton	222	6	Winnacunnet	165
7	North	290	7	Londonderry	184
8	Mascenic	290	8	North	210
9	Souhegan	314	9	Mascenic	233
10	Hanover	340	10	Hanover	295
11	Salem	407	11	Exeter	295
12	Campbell	414	12	Campbell	311
13	Con-Val	422	13	Con-Val	331
14	Bishop Guertin	427	14	Sanborn	351
15	Bow	436	15	Souhegan	354

2018 MI D1 GIRLS MERGE 2018 D1 GIRLS FINISH

1	Exeter	110	1	Pinkerton	51
2	Salem	111	2	Exeter	84
3	Bishop Guertin	124	3	Concord	136
4	Bedford	124	4	Bishop Guertin	146
5	Central	173	5	Salem	161
6	Concord	182	6	Central	169
7	Pinkerton	192	7	Bedford	179
8	South	215	8	Keene	184
9	Keene	227	9	South	227
10	Merrimack	228	10	Merrimack	239
11	Alvirne	268	11	Londonderry	273
12	Winnacunnet	288	12	North	283
13	North	349	13	Winnacunnet	312
14	Memorial	374	14	Alvirne	356
15	Londonderry	382	15	Dover	357

2018 MI D1 BOYS MERGE 2018 D1 BOYS FINISH

1	Concord	24	1	Concord	48
2	Winnacunnet	88	2	Keene	91
3	Londonderry	105	3	Pinkerton	104
4	Pinkerton	119	4	Winnacunnet	106
5	North	144	5	Londonderry	113
6	Salem	193	6	North	177
7	Bishop Guertin	203	7	Exeter	204
8	Merrimack	218	8	Merrimack	227
9	Exeter	249	9	Bishop Guertin	265
10	Alvirne	307	10	Alvirne	287
11	Dover	311	11	Salem	289
12	Memorial	333	12	Dover	296
13	Bedford	345	13	Memorial	337
14	South	430	14	Bedford	417
15	Central	431	15	South

2018 D2 GIRLS MERGE 2018 D2 GIRLS FINISH

1	Souhegan	82	1	Coe-Brown	62
2	Coe-Brown	82	2	Con-Val	72
3	Oyster River	89	3	Souhegan	80
4	Con-Val	99	4	Oyster River	127
5	Hanover	164	5	Hanover	144
6	Milford	190	6	Milford	170
7	Portsmouth	191	7	Portsmouth	174
8	Merrimack Valley	226	8	Merrimack Valley	177
9	Hollis/Brookline	277	9	Kennett	310
10	Windham	311	10	Kingswood	349
11	Kingswood	315	11	John Stark	356
12	Plymouth	336	12	Hollis/Brookline	361
13	John Stark	347	13	Plymouth	364
14	St. Thomas	359	14	Windham	337
15	Bow	361	15	Bow	357

2018 MI D2 BOYS MERGE 2018 D2 BOYS FINISH

1	Coe-Brown	48	1	Coe-Brown	44
2	Oyster River	68	2	Oyster River	61
3	Souhegan	128	3	Hanover	97
4	Hanover	139	4	Souhegan	144
5	Con-Val	163	5	Con-Val	154
6	Bow	175	6	Sanborn	167
7	Sanborn	198	7	Bow	205
8	Merrimack Valley	226	8	Merrimack Valley	224
9	Hollis/Brookline	272	9	Windham	258
10	Windham	289	10	Hollis/Brookline	274
11	Kingswood	308	11	Kennett	288
12	Portsmouth	309	12	Portsmouth	311
13	John Stark	341	13	Kingswood	372
14	Goffstown	393	14	Goffstown	407
15	Milford	396	15	John Stark	435

2018 MI D3 GIRLS MERGE 2018 D3 GIRLS FINISH

1	Campbell	43	1	Hopkinton	52
2	Hopkinton	50	2	Campbell	81
3	Portsmouth Christian	111	3	Kearsarge	101
4	Mascenic	138	4	Lebanon	131
5	Lebanon	145	5	Monadnock	146
6	Newmarket	156	6	Newmarket	180
7	Derryfield	163	7	Mascenic	208
8	Gilford	167	8	Portsmouth Christian	209
9	Winnisquam	184	9	Derryfield	222

2018 MI D3 BOYS MERGE 2018 D3 BOYS FINISH

1	Mascenic	48	1	Mascenic	63
2	Campbell	68	2	Campbell	65
3	Trinity	128	3	Kearsarge	78
4	Monadnock	139	4	Trinity	103
5	Hopkinton	163	5	Winnisquam	151
6	Lebanon	175	6	Hopkinton	243
7	Winnisquam	198	7	Lebanon	255
8	Derryfield	226	8	Monadnock	277
9	Belmont	272	9	Berlin	285
10	Gilford	289	10	Conant	347
11	Newmarket	308	11	Gilford	355
12	Portsmouth Christian	309	12	Bishop Brady	377
13	Epping	341	13	Prospect Mountain	396
14	Newfound Reg	393	14	Moultonborough	407