2021 Manchester Merges: Accurate Predictor?

This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!! Here is our annual Manchester Merges Post. One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state. Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons. But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor? With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state. Is this the right decision? Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study. We have provided links to the 2021 merges provided by Millennium Running. We have also provided comparisons of how the merge fared in 2019 and links to our posts from previous years. Warning: Long Post!!!

2021 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL STATE AND DIVISIONAL MERGES

Manch State Merge Girls

Manch State Merge Boys

Manch D1 Merge Girls

Manch D1 Merge Boys

Manch D2 Merge Girls

Manch D2 Merge Boys

Manch D3 Merge Girls

Manch D3 Merge Boys

HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2019 WITH MOCS

2019 MI GIRLS MERGE 2019 MOC FINISH

Rank	School	Score	Rank	School	Score
1	Souhegan	112	1	Souhegan	80
2	Bishop Guertin	131	2	Bishop Guertin	109
3	MV	147	3	Concord	111
4	Keene	151	4	Exeter	159
5	Hopkinton	207	5	Coe-Brown	166
6	Bedford	225	6	Keene	188
7	Coe-Brown	244	7	Merrimack Valley	199
8	Concord	244	8	Hopkinton	217
9	Exeter	273	9	Bedford	239
10	Kearsarge	313	10	South	257
11	Hanover	368	11	Oyster River	296
12	Londonderry	419	12	Ports. Christian	296
13	Pinkerton	426	13	Hanover	305
14	Ports. Christian	445	14	Londonderry	318
15	Oyster River	484	15	Kearsarge	336

2019 MI BOYS MERGE 2019 MOC FINISH

Rank	School	Score	Rank	School	Score
1	Coe-Brown	69	1	Coe-Brown	57
2	Pinkerton	110	2	Pinkerton	105
3	Londonderry	123	3	Concord	107
4	Oyster River	145	4	Keene	117
5	Concord	147	5	Oyster River	158
6	Winnacunnet	234	6	Londonderry	164
7	North	293	7	Winnacunnet	180
8	Hanover	351	8	North	239
9	Bishop Guertin	379	9	Windham	260
10	Merrimack	413	10	Hanover	285
11	Con-Val	415	11	Mascenic	292
12	Bow	426	12	Con-Val	301
13	Souhegan	430	13	Merrimack	303
14	Windham	451	14	Bow	308
15	Sanborn	471	15	Campbell	412

2019 MI D1 GIRLS MERGE 2019 D1 GIRLS FINISH

1	Bishop Guertin	65	1	Concord	70
2	Keene	69	2	Bishop Guertin	82
3	Bedford	108	3	Exeter	114
4	Concord	119	4	Keene	131
5	Exeter	129	5	Bedford	158
6	Londonderry	192	6	South	169
7	Pinkerton	201	7	Londonderry	194
8	Salem	246	8	Pinkerton	208
9	Winnacunnet	248	9	Salem	237
10	Dover	252	10	North	267
11	South	256	11	Dover	272
12	North	340	12	Winnacunnet	281
13	Spaulding	345	13	Memorial	344
14	Merrimack	366	14	Merrimack	357
15	Central	381	15	Central	375

2019 MI D1 BOYS MERGE 2019 D1 BOYS FINISH

1	Pinkerton	59	1	Concord	66
2	Londonderry	59	2	Keene	83
3	Concord	72	3	Pinkerton	91
4	Winnacunnet	121	4	Winnacunnet	107
5	North	146	5	Londonderry	119
6	Bishop Guertin	185	6	North	137
7	Merrimack	203	7	Merrimack	195
8	Dover	244	8	Exeter	271
9	Exeter	270	9	Bishop Guertin	289
10	Bedford	273	10	Dover	312
11	South	287	11	Bedford	323
12	Memorial	335	12	Memorial	328
13	Salem	337	13	Salem	343
14	Alvirne	349	14	South	345
15	Timberlane	427	15	Alvirne

2019 D2 GIRLS MERGE 2019 D2 GIRLS FINISH

1	Souhegan	37	1	Souhegan	41
2	Merrimack Valley	47	2	Coe-Brown	47
3	Coe-Brown	76	3	Merrimack Valley	94
4	Hanover	116	4	Oyster River	124
5	Oyster River	160	5	Kennett	168
6	St. Thomas	194	6	Hanover	176
7	John Stark	202	7	Lebanon	246
8	Plymouth	228	8	Portsmouth	249
9	Portsmouth	229	9	John Stark	261
10	Kingswood	249	10	Kingswood	310
11	Milford	285	11	Windham	314
12	Con-Val	327	12	Plymouth	328
13	Windham	352	13	Milford	339
14	Bow	352	14	Con-Val	345
15	Pembroke	423	15	Bow	355

2019 MI D2 BOYS MERGE 2019 D2 BOYS FINISH

1	Coe-Brown	31	1	Coe-Brown	21
2	Oyster River	63	2	Oyster River	63
3	Hanover	128	3	Hanover	130
4	Con-Val	154	4	Windham	150
5	Bow	162	5	Bow	173
6	Souhegan	163	6	Con-Val	174
7	Windham	171	7	Souhegan	198
8	Sanborn	177	8	Sanborn	217
9	Portsmouth	243	9	Portsmouth	256
10	Hollis/Brookline	258	10	Kingswood	304
11	Merrimack Valley	328	11	Hollis/Brookline	313
12	Pelham	347	12	Merrimack Valley	318
13	Kingswood	383	13	Lebanon	367
14	Milford	394	14	Kennett	372
15	St. Thomas	400	15	Pelham	410

2019 MI D3 GIRLS MERGE 2019 D3 GIRLS FINISH

1	Hopkinton	47	1	Kearsarge	52
2	Kearsarge	67	2	Hopkinton	81
3	Portsmouth Christian	104	3	Campbell	101
4	Lebanon	123	4	Portsmouth Christian	131
5	Campbell	133	5	Newmarket	146
6	Newmarket	163	6	Monadnock	180
7	Mascenic	201	7	Mascenic	208
8	Hinsdale	208	8	Conant	209
9	Monadnock	220	9	Fall Mountain	222

2019 MI D3 BOYS MERGE 2019 D3 BOYS FINISH

1	Mascenic	80	1	Mascenic	87
2	Hopkinton	101	2	Hopkinton	112
3	Campbell	102	3	Conant	120
4	Trinity	129	4	Campbell	133
5	Monadnock	135	5	Kearsarge	155
6	Kearsarge	148	6	Trinity	166
7	Lebanon	197	7	Monadnock	230
8	Winnisquam	239	8	Berlin	296
9	Epping	270	9	Winnisquam	300
10	Gilford	272	10	Prospect Mountain	311
11	Inter-Lakes	288	11	Bishop Brady	382
12	Conant	289	12	Moultonborough	389
13	Derryfield	299	13	Laconia	405
14	Newmarket	329	14	Newfound	412