With 2024 Season Previews on the way and races not that far off, NHCC is getting excited for this upcoming season! It is always fun to assess the accuracy of our predictions given all the variables which contribute to a high school cross country season! So, just how good are we here at NHCC with predicting Divisional Championships and MOC outcomes? Let’s find out! Below are the summaries of what we predicted in contrast with the real results of the 2023 XC season. Anyone can make predictions but we here at NHCC demand accountability from…ourselves!
Disclaimer: Many different people contribute to these predictions over the course of a given season, so is this a perfectly scientific breakdown of accuracy? Nope, it’s just for fun and we are happy to expose our inaccuracies (and brag about our successes too). Accurately predicting team success (especially before we’ve had any meets!) is incredibly difficult.
The number of teams in each category reflect the number of teams eligible to advance to the next level of competition. (MOC qualification is a little different this year, more info on that in a future post)
Division 3 Girls
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | Divisional Championship Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Hopkinton | 1) Hopkinton | 1) Mascenic |
| 2) Mascenic | 2) Mascenic | 2) Hopkinton |
| 3) Conant | 3) Fall Mountain | 3) Newmarket |
| 4) Monadnock | 4) Newfound | 4) Gilford |
| 5) Kearsarge | 5) Gilford | 5) Fall Mountain |
A tough start here with only two out of five (40%) correct in the always tricky Seasonal Preview, but some redemption with four out of five (80%) selection hits in the Divisional Preview. No perfect predictions to be found anywhere here (and no credit for picking Mascenic and Hopkinton as the top 2 teams), but the real hit to our reputation is that Newmarket placed 3rd at D3s and did not get one mention as a top 5 team in either preview. Congrats to the Mules for coming up big in a big spot!
Overall Grade: C+
Division 3 Boys
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | Divisional Championship Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Trinity | 1) Fall Mountain | 1) Hopkinton |
| 2) Gilford | 2) Monadnock | 2) Fall Mountain |
| 3) St. Thomas Aquinas | 3) Mascoma Valley | 3) Mascoma Valley |
| 4) Fall Mountain | 4) St. Thomas Aquinas | 4) Portsmouth Christian Academy |
| 5) Mascenic | 5) Gilford | 5) Gilford |
Another tough start here with two out of five (40%) correct in the Seasonal Preview and only three out of five (60%) in the Divisional Preview. Having Mascoma Valley and Gilford in the correct slots in the Divisional Preview was nice, but can we get a do-over when it comes to Hopkinton? The eventual champ not getting a mention in the top 5 in either preview is a sizable oversight to be sure. Add in the same issue with 4th place team PCA and this group of previews was a bit of a bust.
Grade: C-
Division 2 Girls
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | Divisional Championship Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Hanover | 1) Oyster River | 1) Oyster River |
| 2) Oyster River | 2) Hanover | 2) Hanover |
| 3) Plymouth | 3) Plymouth | 3) Plymouth |
| 4) Kennett | 4) Souhegan | 4) Souhegan |
| 5) Souhegan | 5) Coe-Brown | 5) Lebanon |
| 6) John Stark | 6) Hollis-Brookline | 6) Bow |
Much better effort here with four out of six teams (67%) predicted correctly in the Seasonal Preview. We showed some real improvement with again four out of six (67%) correct again in the Divisional Preview and the top 4 teams performing exactly as predicted! However, we failed to rank both eventual #5 Lebanon and #6 Bow in either preview. Well done Raiders and Falcons; anyone who can prove us wrong is always appreciated!
Grade: B
Division 2 Boys
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | Divisional Championship Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Souhegan | 1) Coe-Brown | 1) Hanover |
| 2) Hanover | 2) Hanover | 2) Coe-Brown |
| 3) Coe-Brown | 3) Souhegan | 3) Souhegan |
| 4) Bow | 4) Oyster River | 4) Oyster River |
| 5) Milford | 5) Milford | 5) Bow |
| 6) Plymouth | 6) Bow | 6) Milford |
This is some of our best work so far. Five out of six (83%) correct in the Seasonal Preview, but no perfect matches. The Divisional Preview sizzled with six out of six (100%) predictions coming true, and with #3 and #4 right on the nose coupled with two one-spot transpositions means we are taking a victory lap here!
Grade: A
Division 1 Girls
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | Divisional Championship Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Pinkerton | 1) Pinkerton | 1) Pinkerton |
| 2) Bedford | 2) Bedford | 2) Bedford |
| 3) Winnacunnet | 3) Dover | 3) Dover |
| 4) Dover | 4) Nashua North | 4) Exeter |
| 5) Keene | 5) Winnacunnet | 5) Concord |
| 6) Concord | 6) Exeter | 6) Nashua North |
| 7) Bishop Guertin | 7) Concord | 7) Bishop Guertin |
Nice work here in the Seasonal Preview with five out of seven (71%) accurately predicted. In the Divisional Preview we improved to six out of seven (86%) and nailed the top three predictions perfectly. Sometimes your first guess is the best guess; we totally called Bishop Guertin owning the #7 spot for a MOC berth in the Seasonal Preview.
Grade: A-
Division 1 Boys
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | Divisional Championship Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Pinkerton | 1) Nashua South | 1) Nashua South |
| 2) Nashua South | 2) Salem | 2) Pinkerton |
| 3) Bishop Guertin | 3) Pinkerton | 3) Salem |
| 4) Salem | 4) Bedford | 4) Bedford |
| 5) Bedford | 5) Bishop Guertin | 5) Londonderry |
| 6) Exeter | 6) Londonderry | 6) Bishop Guertin |
| 7) Keene | 7) Keene | 7) Keene |
A very solid six out of seven (86%) correctly predicted in the Seasonal Preview, and a very, very nice seven out of seven (100%) correctly predicted in the Divisional Preview. #1, #4, and #7 perfectly predicted as well as two one-spot transpositions makes this the best we’ve done yet. And getting Keene right in every writeup? Chef’s kiss.
Grade: A
MOC Girls
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | MOC Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Hanover | 1) Oyster River | 1) Oyster River |
| 2) Pinkerton | 2) Pinkerton | 2) Hanover |
| 3) Bedford | 3) Hanover | 3) Pinkerton |
| 4) Oyster River | 4) Bedford | 4) Bedford |
| 5) Winnacunnet | 5) Dover | 5) Dover |
| 6) Dover | 6) Exeter | 6) Exeter |
Very tough to predict category here early on, but some nice work with five out of six predicted correctly (83%) in the Seasonal Preview. Tremendous work in the MOC preview article as well with six out of six (100%) teams accurately predicted and a perfect call on placement in the #1, #4, #5, #6 spots. Pinkerton/Hanover transposition was the only “wrinkle” in an otherwise flawless call, well done us!
Grade: A+
MOC Boys
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | MOC Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Souhegan | 1) Nashua South | 1) Nashua South |
| 2) Pinkerton | 2) Hanover | 2) Hanover |
| 3) Hanover | 3) Coe-Brown | 3) Coe-Brown |
| 4) Nashua South | 4) Pinkerton | 4) Pinkerton |
| 5) Bishop Guertin | 5) Salem | 5) Souhegan |
| 6) Coe-Brown | 6) Bedford | 6) Bedford |
A strong five out of six (83%) correctly predicted teams from the Seasonal Preview. Can’t get much better than that, right? In the MOC Prediction article however, we crush it with again five out of six (83%) correctly predicted teams and perfect placements with the #1, #2, #3, #4 and #6 teams which qualifies this as a pretty good outing. Well done Souhegan by flying under the radar for the MOC Prediction article and performing big when it counted the most by surging for a #5 placement.
Grade: A+
Thanks for reading, and please understand that our grading system may have been inflated to soothe our delicate egos.
Good luck and good health this season; as always please try your best to prove as many of our predictions wrong as possible!
