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2017 Manchester Merges: Accurate Predictor?

This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!!  One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state.  Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons.  But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor?  With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state.  Is this the right decision?  Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study.  We have provided links to the 2017 merges provided by Millennium Running.  We have also provided comparisons of how the merge fared in 2016 and links to our posts from previous years.  Warning: Long Post!!!

2017 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL STATE AND DIVISIONAL MERGES

Manch State Merge Girls

Manch State Merge Boys

Manch D1 Merge Girls

Manch D1 Merge Boys

Manch D2 Merge Girls

Manch D2 Merge Boys

Manch D3 Merge Girls

Manch D3 Merge Boys

HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2016 WITH MOCS

2016 MI GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2016 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Coe-Brown 116 1 Souhegan 89
2 Pinkerton 138 2 Pinkerton 119
3 Alvirne 152 3 Coe-Brown 127
4 Souhegan 156 4 Bishop Guertin 137
5 Bedford 186 5 Alvirne 144
6 Hanover 208 6 Merrimack 172
7 Central 248 7 Bedford 179
8 Merrimack 275 8 Hanover 193
9 Concord 277 9 Exeter 200
10 Bishop Guertin 326 10 Central 208
11 Oyster River 336 11 Oyster River 267
12 Portsmouth 346 12 Merrimack Valley 332
 13 Exeter 348 13 Con-Val 345
 14  Milford 354 14 Campbell 370
 15 Merrimack Valley  358 15 Kearsarge 409

2016 MI BOYS MERGE                                                                    2016 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Concord 58 1 Nashua North 84
2 Nashua North 101 2 Concord 91
3 Coe-Brown 101 3 Keene 115
4 Pinkerton 133 4 Pinkerton 124
5 Oyster River 196 5 Coe-Brown 139
6 Londonderry 219 6 Oyster River 155
7 Monadnock 232 7 Monadnock 241
8 Nashua South 293 8 Londonderry 252
9 Bishop Guertin 323 9 Alvirne 268
10 Alvirne 327 10 Pelham 286
11 Souhegan 341 11 Kearsarge 287
12 Spaulding 389 12 Monadnock 348
13 Bedford 439 13 Souhegan 364
14 Hollis/Brookline 447 14 Hollis/Brookline 374
15 Goffstown 503 15 Mascenic 379

2016 MI D1 GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2016 D1 GIRLS FINISH

1 Pinkerton 78 1 Pinkerton 67
2 Alvirne 82 2 Bishop Guertin 85
3 Bedford 104 3 Alvirne 115
4 Central 132 4 Merrimack 129
5 Merrimack 146 5 Bedford 134
6 Concord 151 6 Exeter 146
7 Bishop Guertin 175 7 Central 200
8 Exeter 184 8 Concord 210
9 Nashua South 203 9 Nashua South 214
10 Nashua North 243 10 Dover 282
11 Winnacunnet 245 11 Londonderry 283
12 Dover 293 12 Nashua North 352
13 Spaulding 333 13 Winnacunnet 369
14 Salem 366 14 Spaulding 375
 15 Memorial  383 15 Timberlane 405

2016 MI D1 BOYS MERGE                                                                  2016 D1 BOYS FINISH

1 Concord 43 1 Pinkerton 60
2 North 73 2 Concord 64
3 Pinkerton 87 3 Keene 85
4 Londonderry 133 4 Nashua North 93
5 South 172 5 Alvirne 155
6 Alvirne 193 6 Nashua South 196
6 Bishop Guertin 193 7 Londonderry 202
8 Exeter 184 8 Bishop Guertin 224
9 Spaulding 229 9 Spaulding 266
10 Bedford 244 10 Merrimack 269
11 Exeter 280 11 Winnacunnet 282
12 Winnacunnet 324 12 Bedford 309
13 Merrimack 333 13 Exeter 373
14 Dover 346 14 Dover 398
 15 Timberlane 366 15 Timberlane

2016 D2 GIRLS MERGE                                                                        2016 D2 GIRLS FINISH

1 Coe-Brown 54 1 Souhegan 52
2 Souhegan 68 2 Coe-Brown 68
3 Hanover 86 3 Hanover 115
4 Oyster River 139 4 Oyster River 138
5 Portsmouth 141 5 Con-Val 171
6 Merrimack Valley 142 6 Merrimack Valley 181
7 Milford 145 7 Kennett 186
8 Con-Val 145 8 Portsmouth 187
9 Hollis/Brookline 261 9 Milford 196
10 John Stark 318 10 Windham 244
11 Lebanon 324 11 Hollis/Brookline 296
12 Pembroke 343 12 Plymouth 324
13 Trinity 345 13 St. Thomas 424

 
2016 MI D2 BOYS MERGE                                                                   2016 D2 BOYS FINISH

1 Coe-Brown 26 1 Coe-Brown 35
2 Oyster River 55 2 Oyster River 61
3 Souhegan 115 3 Pelham 102
4 Hollis/Brookline 155 4 Hollis/Brookline 160
5 Hanover 177 5 Souhegan 169
6 Windham 197 6 Kennett 182
7 Lebanon 216 7 Con-Val 254
8 Merrimack Valley 238 8 Hanover 267
9 Trinity 248 9 Goffstown 276
10 Con-Val 252 10 Windham 282
11  Milford  260 11 Kingswood 288
12  Pelham  265 12 Lebanon 290
13 Hollis/Brookline 301 13 Trinity 331
14 Milford 308 14 Milford 338
15 Pembroke 289 15 Merrimack Valley 367

*With more D3 teams competing at Manchester this year, we will add comparisons to next year’s post

2015 Comparisons

2014 Comparisons

2013 Comparisons

Picture of NH Staff

NH Staff

One Response

  1. I love the merge, however it’s only a tool to look at where schools are in the season. Additionally, without all the schools there you can’t simply apply the merge and expect things to match up with the end of the season. Of the top ten ranked teams, Keene and Mascenic weren’t there. Additionally, noticably absent was the Pelham varsity boys (and Cam Starr) while they ran JV and womens teams. A few more weeks should shake out the contenders for each division. I’m really interested in the Divisional previews to get a real perspective of what to expect on Oct 28th.

    Reply

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