By Mike Lyford
So, just how good are we here at NHCC with predicting Divisional Championships and MOC outcomes? Not terrible! Below are the summaries of what we wrote contrasted with the real results of the 2017 XC season.
Disclaimer: Many people contribute to these predictions over the course of a given season so is this a perfectly scientific breakdown of accuracy? Nope, it’s just for fun and we are happy to expose our inaccuracies (and brag about our successes too…)
*The numbers of teams in each category reflect the number of teams eligible to advance to the next level of competition.
Division 3 Boys
|
Seasonal Preview Predictions |
Divisional Championship Preview Predictions |
Actual Results |
| 1) Kearsarge | 1) Mascenic | 1) Mascenic |
| 2) Mascenic | 2) Kearsarge | 2) Kearsarge |
| 3) Campbell | 3) Campbell | 3) Campbell |
| 4) Derryfield | 4) Monadnock | 4) Bow |
| 5) Moultonborough | 5) Bow | 5) Winnisquam |
Pretty good here, if we’re going by a percentage of teams predicted to be in the top 5 vs actual teams appearing in the top 5. The Seasonal Preview got three out of five correct (60%) and the Divisional Championship Preview nailed four of five (80%) overall. Not only that, check out the Divisional Preview vs the Actual; perfect on the first three and only missing Bow by one place! Plus the top three in the Seasonal Preview were the top three in real life. Well done!
Grade: A-
Division 3 Girls
|
Seasonal Preview Predictions |
Divisional Championship Preview Predictions |
Actual Results |
| 1) Campbell | 1) Campbell | 1) Campbell |
| 2) White Mountains | 2) Hopkinton | 2) Hopkinton |
| 3) Monadnock | 3) Kearsarge | 3) Kearsarge |
| 4) Hopkinton | 4) Belmont | 4) Mascenic |
| 5) Mascenic | 5) Monadnock | 5) Monadnock |
An even better outing here; the Seasonal Preview got four out of five correct (80%) and the Divisional Championship Preview clocked in at four of five (80%) overall as well. Glance at the Divisional Preview vs the Actual and let the back patting begin! Four out of five exactly correct; that is a stunning achievement.
Grade: A
Division 2 Boys
|
Seasonal Preview Predictions |
Divisional Championship Preview Predictions |
Actual Results |
| 1) Oyster River | 1) Oyster River | 1) Oyster River |
| 2) Pelham | 2) Coe-Brown | 2) Coe-Brown |
| 3) Hollis-Brookline | 3) Kingswood | 3) Hanover |
| 4) Coe-Brown | 4) Trinity | 4) Kingswood |
| 5) Con-Val | 5) Sanborn | 5) Souhegan |
| 6) Hanover | 6) Hanover | 6) Sanborn |
Not quite as good here at first; the Seasonal Preview only predicted three out of six correctly (50%) but the Divisional Championship Preview got five out of six (83%) overall. Nice! The Divisional Preview vs the Actual also got the first two perfectly. We seem to be pretty good at predicting the winning teams so far, let’s see if that holds up.
Grade: B+
Division 2 Girls
|
Seasonal Preview Predictions |
Divisional Championship Preview Predictions |
Actual Results |
| 1) Souhegan | 1) Souhegan | 1) Souhegan |
| 2) Hanover | 2) Coe-Brown | 2) Coe-Brown |
| 3) Coe-Brown | 3) Con-Val | 3) Oyster River |
| 4) Oyster River | 4) Oyster River | 4) Con-Val |
| 5) Portsmouth | 5) Hanover | 5) Milford |
| 6) Kennett | 6) Milford | 6) Hanover |
Remember we’re going by a percentage of teams predicted to be in the top 6 vs actual teams appearing in the top 6. I mention that again because by that metric this was our best work yet! The Seasonal Preview predicted four out of six correctly (67%) and the Divisional Championship Preview got a staggering six out of six (100%) overall. Outstanding! The Divisional Preview vs the Actual again got the first two exactly right.
Grade: A+
Division 1 Boys
|
Seasonal Preview Predictions |
Divisional Championship Preview Predictions |
Actual Results |
| 1) Concord | 1) Concord | 1) Concord |
| 2) Keene | 2) Londonderry | 2) Pinkerton |
| 3) Pinkerton | 3) Keene | 3) Londonderry |
| 4) Nashua North | 4) Pinkerton | 4) Nashua North |
| 5) Londonderry | 5) Nashua North | 5) Winnacunnet |
| 6) Alvirne | 6) Winnacunnet | 6) Keene |
| 7) Winnacunnet | 7) Nashua South | 7) Exeter |
| 8) No Team Listed! | 8) No Team Listed! | 8) Merrimack |
Pretty good here as well; the Seasonal Preview predicted six out of eight correctly (75%) and the Divisional Championship Preview kept it consistent with not only that same number of teams but the same 6 teams as the Seasonal Preview! The Divisional Preview vs the Actual only got the winning team right in terms of places; we’re just playing to our strengths! The number of teams involved in this division increases the degree of difficulty significantly when it comes to predictions; that will be reflected in the grading. We could have also fudged our numbers here and “predicted” a top team when none was listed, but transparency and integrity are important to us here at NHCC as they should be across the sport.
Grade: A
Division 1 Girls
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | Divisional Championship Preview Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Pinkerton | 1) Pinkerton | 1) Pinkerton |
| 2) Bishop Guertin | 2) Bishop Guertin | 2) Bishop Guertin |
| 3) Merrimack | 3) Merrimack | 3) Nashua South |
| 4) Exeter | 4) Nashua South | 4) Merrimack |
| 5) Nashua South | 5) Bedford | 5) Manchester Central |
| 6) Manchester Central | 6) Exeter | 6) Exeter |
| 7) Londonderry | 7) Manchester Central | 7) Alvirne |
| 8) Concord | 8) Alvirne | 8) Concord |
The Seasonal Preview predicted whopping seven out of eight correctly (88%) and the Divisional Championship Preview equaled that feat with a slightly different configuration of seven out of eight (88%) overall. Well done! The Divisional Preview vs the Actual again got the first two exactly right, but didn’t stop there and got an additional perfect hit with Exeter. With a couple of teams simply transposed and two more only 1-2 spots off the predicted, this looks like the best overall performance!
Grade: A++
Boy’s Meet of Champions
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | MOC Preview Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Concord | 1) Concord | 1) Concord |
| 2) Keene | 2) Oyster River | 2) Nashua North |
| 3) Oyster River | 3) Coe-Brown | 3) Keene |
| 4) Nashua North | 4) Londonderry | 4) Oyster River |
| 5) Pinkerton | 5) Pinkerton | 5) Londonderry |
| 6) Londonderry | 6) Keene | 6) Coe-Brown |
MOC is always notoriously difficult to predict, so now that we’ve set low expectations let’s check out the numbers. The Seasonal Preview got an impressive five out of six correct (83%) and the Divisional Championship Preview equaled that with again five out of six correct (83%). We only missed on one team, but what a miss! Nashua North ran out of their minds and made us look foolish for not including them in the predicted top 6. We are assuming that was their main motivation for running so well. Again, hitting the top team prediction here but no other perfect predictions to be had.
Grade: A-
Girl’s Meet of Champions
| Seasonal Preview Predictions | MOC Preview Predictions | Actual Results |
| 1) Pinkerton | 1) Pinkerton | 1) Souhegan |
| 2) Bishop Guertin | 2) Bishop Guertin | 2) Pinkerton |
| 3) Merrimack | 3) Souhegan | 3) Coe-Brown |
| 4) Souhegan | 4) Coe-Brown | 4) Oyster River |
| 5) Hanover | 5) Oyster River | 5) Bishop Guertin |
| 6) Exeter | 6) Nashua South | 6) Merrimack |
The Seasonal Preview got four out of six correct (67%) here and the Divisional Championship Preview did very well with five out of six correct (83%). Most of the divisional predictions were only off by a spot or two, but here died our streak of predicting the wining team. Souhegan saved the best for last at MOC and showed us that nothing is ever won or lost on paper. “That’s why we run the races!” Larry Martin has often said with a wry smile.
Grade: B+ /A-
Thanks for reading this, and please understand that our grading system may have been inflated to sooth our delicate egos. Good luck and good heath this season; please try your best to always prove us wrong!
