2018 Manchester Merges: Accurate Predictor?

This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!! One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state. Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons. But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor? With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state. Is this the right decision? Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study. We have provided links to the 2018 merges provided by Millennium Running. We have also provided comparisons of how the merge fared in 2017 and links to our posts from previous years. Warning: Long Post!!!

2018 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL STATE AND DIVISIONAL MERGES

Manch State Merge Girls

Manch State Merge Boys

Manch D1 Merge Girls

Manch D1 Merge Boys

Manch D2 Merge Girls

Manch D2 Merge Boys

Manch D3 Merge Girls

Manch D3 Merge Boys

HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2017 WITH MOCS

2017 MI GIRLS MERGE 2017 MOC FINISH

Rank	School	Score	Rank	School	Score
1	Bishop Guertin	131	1	Souhegan	105
2	Souhegan	141	2	Pinkerton	110
3	Coe-Brown	170	3	Coe-Brown	137
4	Pinkerton	202	4	Oyster River	141
5	Con-Val	275	5	Bishop Guertin	151
6	Merrimack	277	6	Merrimack	186
7	Hanover	278	7	South	191
8	Oyster River	296	8	Con-Val	245
9	Alvirne	297	9	Exeter	257
10	Bedford	320	10	Alvrne	261
11	Central	379	11	Milford	266
12	Campbell	381	12	Central	289
13	Exeter	388	13	Hanover	301
14	Milford	445	14	Campbell	323
15	Concord	451	15	Hopkinton	340

2017 MI BOYS MERGE 2017 MOC FINISH

Rank	School	Score	Rank	School	Score
1	Concord	37	1	Concord	51
2	Oyster River	92	2	North	110
3	Coe-Brown	135	3	Keene	138
4	Pinkerton	166	4	Oyster River	140
5	Nashua North	196	5	Londonderry	154
6	Kearsarge	287	6	Coe-Brown	157
7	Winnacunnet	295	7	Pinkerton	174
8	Londonderry	313	8	Hanover	240
9	Hanover	345	9	Exeter	245
10	Campbell	388	10	Winnacunnet	254
11	Kingswood	395		Kingswood	266
12	Trinity	425	12	Mascenic	306
13	Exeter	456	13	Kearsarge	337
14	South	466	14	Sanborn	375
15	Souhegan	488	15	Campbell	382

2017 MI D1 GIRLS MERGE 2017 D1 GIRLS FINISH

1	Bishop Guertin	66	1	Pinkerton	49
2	Pinkerton	105	2	Bishop Guertin	55
3	Merrimack	135	3	Nashua South	147
4	Alvirne	149	4	Merrimack	152
5	Bedford	157	5	Central	153
6	Exeter	191	6	Exeter	166
7	Central	194	7	Alvirne	172
8	Concord	232	8	Concord	183
9	Nashua North	247	9	Bedford	195
10	Nashua South	248	10	Salem	234
11	Dover	276	11	Londonderry	312
12	Spaulding	282	12	Dover	322
13	Londonderry	283	13	Nashua North	331
14	Winnacunnet	303	14	Spaulding	339
15	Salem	390	15	Winnacunnet	344

2017 MI D1 BOYS MERGE 2017 D1 BOYS FINISH

1	Concord	20	1	Concord	28
2	Pinkerton	78	2	Pinkerton	89
3	North	89	3	Londonderry	91
4	Winnacunnet	136	4	Nashua North	101
5	Londonderry	139	5	Winnacunnet	165
6	Exeter	201	6	Keene	174
6	South	205	7	Exeter	179
8	Alvirne	217	8	Merrimack	235
9	Dover	271	9	South	265
10	Merrimack	282	10	Alvirne	315
11	Bishop Guertin	290	11	Salem	317
12	Salem	319	12	Dover	327
13	Timberlane	359	13	Bishop Guertin	335
14	Central	368	14	Memorial	336
15	Bedford	428	15	Central

2017 D2 GIRLS MERGE 2017 D2 GIRLS FINISH

1	Souhegan	57	1	Souhegan	62
2	Coe-Brown	68	2	Coe-Brown	72
3	Con-Val	102	3	Oyster River	80
4	Hanover	105	4	Con-Val	127
5	Oyster River	110	5	Milford	144
6	Milford	159	6	Hanover	170
7	Portsmouth	196	7	Portsmouth	174
8	Hollis/Brookline	260	8	Kennett	177
9	Kingswood	285	9	Windham	310
10	John Stark	296	10	Hollis/Brookline	349
11	Lebanon	306	11	St. Thomas	356
12	Merrimack Valley	318	12	Kingswood	361
13	Pelham	322	13	John Stark	364

2017 MI D2 BOYS MERGE 2017 D2 BOYS FINISH

1	Oyster River	42	1	Oyster River	51
2	Coe-Brown	63	2	Coe-Brown	61
3	Hanover	143	3	Hanover	136
4	Kingswood	160	4	Kingswood	139
5	Trinity	176	5	Souhegan	183
6	Souhegan	198	6	Sanborn	207
7	Lebanon	213	7	Merrimack Valley	210
8	Merrimack Valley	214	8	Windham	211
9	Portsmouth	251	9	Hollis/Brookline	217
10	Con-Val	251	10	Kennett	250
11	Windham	253	11	Lebanon	287
12	Hollis/Brookline	288	12	Con-Val	295
13	John Stark	304	13	Trinity	298
14	Milford	410	14	Portsmouth	348
15	Pembroke	423	15	John Stark	401