2022 Manchester Merges: Accurate Predictor?

This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!!  Here is our annual Manchester Merges Post.  One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state.  Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons.  But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor?  With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state.  Is this the right decision?  Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study.  We have provided links to the 2021 merges provided by Millennium Running.  We have also provided comparisons of how the merge fared in 2021 and links to our posts from previous years.  Warning: Long Post!!!


2022 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL STATE AND DIVISIONAL MERGES

Manch State Merge Girls

Manch State Merge Boys

Manch D1 Merge Girls

Manch D1 Merge Boys

Manch D2 Merge Girls

Manch D2 Merge Boys

Manch D3 Merge Girls

Manch D3 Merge Boys


HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2021 WITH MOCS

2021 MI GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2021 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Keene 108 1 Dover 107
2 Souhegan 147 2 Oyster River 123
3 Hopkinton 148 3 Keene 124
4 Dover 149 4 Concord 128
5 Oyster River 184 5 Bishop Guertin 143
6 Pinkerton 226 6 Hopkinton 159
7 Bishop Guertin 235 7 Souhegan 160
8 Concord 250 8 Bedford 196
9 Bedford 256 9 Exeter 208
10 Exeter 299 10 Winnacunnet 294
11 Winnacunnet 307 11 Monadnock 298
12 Kennett 320 12 Coe-Brown 310
13 Coe-Brown 409 13 Kennett 311
 14 Bow 410 14 Conant 328
 15 Nashua North 413 15 Bow 354

2021 MI BOYS MERGE                                                             2021 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Bishop Guertin 120 1 Bishop Guertin 75*
2 Oyster River 148 2 Coe-Brown 75^
3 Pinkerton 149 3 Concord 117
4 Concord 152 4 Pinkerton 147
5 Hanover 217 5 Hanover 201
6 Coe-Brown 246 6 Londonderry 202
7 Windham 248 7 Windham 203*
8 Londonderry 292 8 Sanborn 203*
9 Bow 317 9 Oyster River 221
10 Nashua South 326 10 Keene 242
11 Exeter 348 11 Exeter 248
12 Souhegan 372 12 Nashua South 260
13 Sanborn 420 13 Bow 283
14 Winnacunnet 468 14 Monadnock 366
15 Alvirne 471 15 Newfound Regional 383

2021 MI D1 GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2021 D1 GIRLS FINISH

1 Keene 66 1 Keene 75
2 Dover 89 2 Concord 88
3 Pinkerton 131 3 Dover 106
4 Bishop Guertin 138 4 Bedford 133
5 Concord 141 5 Winnacunnet 143
6 Bedford 148 6 Exeter 149
7 Exeter 171 7 Bishop Guertin 150
8 Winnacunnet 179 8 Pinkerton 151
9 Nashua North 221 9 Nashua North 206
10 Nashua South 245 10 Nashua South 263
11 Londonderry 276 11 Londonderry 278
12 Salem 301 12 Merrimack 360
13 Portsmouth 347 13 Alvirne 371
14 Merrimack 352 14 Salem 396
 15 Alvirne 417 15 Portsmouth 402

2021 MI D1 BOYS MERGE                                                                  2021 D1 BOYS FINISH

1 Bishop Guertin 64 1 Bishop Guertin 58
2 Concord 76 2 Concord 81
3 Pinkerton 78 3 Pinkerton 104
4 Londonderry 148 4 Londonderry 139
5 Nashua South 160 5 Exeter 164
6 Exeter 172 6 Keene 173
7 Winnacunnet 230 7 Nashua South 221
8 Alvirne 232 8 Dover 243
9 Bedford 239 9 Bedford 264
10 Salem 302 10 Alvirne 268
11 Memorial 323 11 Portsmouth 288
12 Portsmouth 323 12 Winnacunnet 298
13 Nashua North 334 13 Nashua North 301
14 Dover 345 14 Timberlane 356
 15 Timberlane 354 15 Memorial

2021 D2 GIRLS MERGE                                                                        2021 D2 GIRLS FINISH

1 Souhegan 44 1 Oyster River 47
2 Oyster River 55 2 Souhegan 72
3 Kennett 94 3 Coe-Brown 97
4 Coe-Brown 122 4 Kennett 127
5 Bow 126 5 Windham 182
6 Hanover 152 6 Bow 183
7 Windham 159 7 Lebanon 184
8 Plymouth 261 8 Hanover 234
9 Con-Val 267 9 Kearsarge 249
10 Merrimack Valley 267 10 Merrimack Valley 256
11 John Stark 269 11 Plymouth 277
12 Pembroke 301 12 Milford 322
13 Goffstown 338 13 Con-Val 351
14 Pembroke 365
15 John Stark 375

 
2021 MI D2 BOYS MERGE                                                                   2021 D2 BOYS FINISH

1 Oyster River 61 1 Coe-Brown 43
2 Hanover 89 2 Windham 84
3 Coe-Brown 96 3 Hanover 99
4 Windham 102 4 Oyster River 121
5 Bow 136 5 Sanborn 153
6 Souhegan 151 6 Bow 158
7 Sanborn 164 7 Lebanon 205
8 Con-Val 291 8 Souhegan 210
9 Hollis/Brookline 299 9 Con-Val 260
10 Pembroke 307 10 Hollis/Brookline 296
11 Goffstown 333 11 Kearsarge 334
12 Kennett 341 12 Pembroke 375
13 St. Thomas 352 13 Goffstown 399
14 Milford 365 14 John Stark 418
15 Merrimack Valley 369 15 Kennett 423

2021 MI D3 GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2021 D3 GIRLS FINISH

1 Hopkinton 19 1 Hopkinton 40
2 Conant 114 2 Monadnock 101
3 Portsmouth Christian 119 3 Conant 127
4 Newmarket 131 4 Campbell 157
5 Lebanon 133 5 Newmarket 162
6 Mascenic 143 6 Gilford 166
7 Campbell 150 7 Mascenic 169
8 Gilford 156 8 St. Thomas 249
9 Trinity 189 9 Belmont 250

2021 MI D3 BOYS MERGE                                                                   2019 D3 BOYS FINISH

1 Conant 75 1 Mascenic 94
2 Mascenic 91 2 Newfound 115
3 Trinity 99 3 Monadnock 135
4 Lebanon 106 4 Fall Mountain 146
5 Hopkinton 119 5 Conant 153
6 Gilford 128 6 Trinity 168
7 Derryfield 180 7 Portsmouth Christian 211
8 Campbell 181 8 Hopkinton 217
9 Epping 190 9 Gilford 257
10 Portsmouth Christian 196 10 St Thomas 263
11 Mascoma 267
12 Inter-Lakes 274
13 Berlin 341
14 Epping 352

2021 Comparisons

2018 Comparisons

2017 Comparisons

2016 Comparisons

2015 Comparisons

2014 Comparisons

2013 Comparisons

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